UCLA backed into the first-ever Pac 12 title game, where they face Oregon, only because Utah was upset losing their last game to Colorado.
UCLA at Oregon
When: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, December 2, 2011
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
They also come into the conference title game with MUCH less than a full head of steam since their busy week has seen them fire their head coach and lose to USC 50-0 in the season finale.
Yeah, it doesn’t look to good for the Bruins.
Here are my Cold Hard Facts + 5 reasons Oregon will blow them out.
1. Run Defense would help
The Bruins only rank 82nd in the nation in defending the run and they will be facing a Oregon rushing offense that ranks 5th in the nation behind star RB LaMichael James, who leads the nation averaging 142 rushing yards per game, and backup Kenjon Barner, who has rushed for over 100 yards 4 times this season.
Not a good match up for the Bruins.
In the Bruins last 2 losses they have given up almost 400 yards on the ground. OUCH.
2. Offense helps to score
The Bruins were blanked last weekend and while they have a legit rushing offense their passing offense is nothing to write home about.
RB’s Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman have played well this season for the Bruins, but since I don’t see them getting many chances to run, the Ducks know UCLA will have to air it out. That’s a recipe for disaster as far as I’m concerned.
We know that’s not their offensive strength.
3. Oregon is ranked
The Bruins have been crushed by 2 of the 3 ranked teams they faced this season and the one team they won against was Arizona State. They’re now on a 4 game losing streak to finish the season, with a 6-6 record.
4. The Ducks will fly
UCLA only ranks 81st in the nation in pass defense and USC’s Matt Barkley torched them last week.
Even though Oregon is a much better team on offense running the ball QB Darron Thomas had his best game of the season last week going 27/40 for 305 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT.
With the Bruins focusing on containing James and the Ducks’ rushing attack Thomas will have another big game. Book it!
5. The game is at Autzen Stadium
The Ducks have won 22 of their last 23 games at Autzen Stadium and their lone loss came against USC.
Now for the trends. To back up my blowout prediction.
Ducks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Ducks are 27-13-3 ATS in their last 43 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Ducks are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Bruins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 8-1 in Ducks last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games overall.
The Bruins could lose this game by 50 as well, I really mean it.
Seriously you ask. YES!
This game in Eugene will get ugly.