mariners

Mariners Vs Blue Jays In Toronto: Pitching, series preview, analysis & predictions

Great White North

April 27-29, 2012

The Seattle Mariners are coming off a sweep of the Tigers and are back to .500 ball with a record of 10-10.  Toronto (10-9) will be looking to snap a 3 game losing streak as the come home to face Seattle.
Pitching match ups:

Game 21: RHP – Blake Beaven vs. LHP – Ricky Romero

Beaven’s last start was his match up against Phillip Humber who threw a perfect game against him, not that the lack of offense was Beaven’s fault in the slightest.  In fact Beaven pitched well against the White Sox going 6 innings and giving up only 3 earned runs.

  • Beaven has only walked 2 batters in his 3 starts this season.  (Felix Hernandez walked 3 in one inning last week)
  • Beaven tends to leave the ball over the plate in an 0-1 count looking for the second strike, Look for hitters to pick up on this trend.
  • In his last outing against Toronto Beaven pitched 5 innings gave up 5 runs, 3 home runs and 2 walks.  He lost.

Romero is 3-0 in 4 starts so far this season and the 4th game was a win for Toronto as well. The left handed Romero is dominating right handed batters, who are only hitting 1.35 against him so far.

  • Despite hitting only .182 and falling victim to 17 strike outs in 15 innings against Romero the M’s were able to hold this hurler back thanks in part to his 6 walks.
  • Romero generally only gets in about 75 pitches per game and becomes more dominate as the game progresses.

Game 22: RHP – Kevin Millwood vs. RHP – Brandon Morrow

Millwood has raised his earned average to 7.04 so far in the season and is really not much more than a place holder until some of the Mariners prospects are ready to make an appearance in the big leagues.  Millwood has never pitched well in Safeco Field, so being on the road could aid his performance.

  • Right handed batters are hitting .364 against Millwood on the season and Toronto has some very good right handed batters.
  • Millwood has not fared well against Toronto over the past 3 years.  He is 1-4 with a 3.74
  • Millwood has given up 9 home runs against the Blue Jays in his 5 games against them

Seattle will go up against their former first round draft pick, Brandon Morrow who was 11-11 for the Jays last season.  It was the Morrow trade that brought current M’s closer Brandon League to the M’s.

  • Morrow’s current line is 1-1 (in 4 starts), 3.71 ERA with 12 Strike outs and a WHIP of 1.13
  • Against his former club Morrow is 2-0 with a 2.07 ERA

Game 23: LHP – Jason Vargas vs. RHP – Henderson Alverez

Vargas continues to pitch well for the Mariners however he is 0-2 with a 7.52 ERA in career starts against the Jays

  • Vargas’ current line 3-1 / 3.45 ERA / 23 SO
  • Opponents are hitting just .211 against the lefty this season

Alverez and Vargas have a trend in common, lack of run support.  Despite giving up just 2 runs in his last outing the Jays offense could only peg 1 for their starter when squaring off against Baltimore.

  • Alverez career ERA against Seattle is 7.20
  • Right handed batters generally have more success against Alverez

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Series Predictions

Game 1:

Momentum could really help with this game and the M’s are on a high of a three game win streak and the Jay are on a low of a three game losing streak.

Romero has been dominate so far this season, especially to right handed batters.  I would expect Eric Wedge to load the line up with lefties for the game.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays

Game 21: RHP – Blake Beaven vs. LHP - Ricky Romero

The M’s are going to have to continue their aggressive style of play in order to have a chance at this game.

The M’s need to break up Romero’s win streak. Prediction:  Win (Mariners 4 – Blue Jays 3)

Game 2:

With the record Millwood has this season and his history against Toronto going against a pitcher who knows Seattle well.  This game is a write off

Prediction: Loss (Mariners 2 – Blue Jays 9)

Game 3:

The third game of the series will likely be the most entertaining. Vargas and Alverez have similar weaknesses and back track records against each others offenses.

I am hoping for a high scoring back and forth type game.

If the Mariners can get an early lead I think they will have the game. Prediction: Win (Mariners 8 – Blue Jays 7)

More News

Justin Smoak and Miquel Olivo both homered in their last game.  Cross you fingers and hope the slump is over.  Meanwhile Alex Liddi was impressive in his 2 starts for Seattle in Detroit and could very well be in the line up for the next several days.

Look for continued production from Chone Figgins or see Dustin Ackley get more games as the lead off man.

More News

  • Seattle has scored 53 of its 81 runs this season in the first four innings.
  • Nick Johnson is off to an 0-for-26 start for the Orioles.
  • Blue Jays starting pitchers have gone at least five innings in 21 straight games dating to last Sept. 27.

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