mariners

Mariners vs. Yankees in N.Y.: Pitching, series preview, analysis & predictions

Does streak continue in the Big Apple

August 3-5

Can the Seattle Mariners take their new found ability to score runs on to the road?

Pitching match ups:

Game 108: RHP – Kevin Millwood vs. LHP – C.C. Sabathia

Kevin Millwood comes into this game 4-8 on the season.  And prior to his win against the Royals last week had not tallied a win since May 23.  His ERA is nestled just below 4 sitting at 3.90, however in looking at his Fielding Independent Percentage, which assess a pitchers performance independently of the rest of the team would put his ERA at 3.47.

However half a run per nine innings makes little difference if your own team doesn’t score.

  • Current Line: 4-8 / 3.90 ERA / 41 BB / 83 SO / 1.36 WHIP
  • Millwood has only allowed 6 home runs this season, a good stat against the Bronx Bombers.

After his stint on the disabled list the Yankee ace is 1-0 in 3 starts.  Sabathia his a strong model of consistency as his season numbers are nearly identical to his combined career averages.  The Mariners will likely have a rough go against an elite level left handed pitcher, but perhaps they have a few surprises up their sleeves.

* Current Line: 10-3 / 3.57 ERA / 33 BB / 123 SO / 1.25 WHIP
* Average career numbers: 17-9 / 3.52 ERA / 69 BB / 195 SO / 1.23

Game 109: RHP – Felix Hernandez vs. RHP – Hiroki Kuroda

It was good to see that Felix Hernandez survived another round of trade rumors and can work less inhibited by ridicule of fans that don’t understand his true value to the team.  Felix has had a rough year with the speculation of his demise at the beginning of the season with the deterioration of his fastball velocity to his back problems mid season.

Now concern should turn to amazement as you begin to realize his stats are surprisingly similar to his 2010 Cy Young year.  Yes its true, he has had a few rough patches, but the second half of the season so far Felix has pitched better than he did in 2010.

  • Current line: 9-5 / 2.79 ERA / 41 BB / 153 SO / 1.15 WHIP
  • 2010 Season numbers: 13-12 / 2.27 ERA / 70 BB / 232 SO / 1.05 WHIP

Kuroda shut down the M’s in their match up.  Kuroda is a groundball pitcher who uses his fastball only about 12% of the time.  This can help explain the Mariners struggles.

The young guys sit on the fast ball, when they don’t get it they get into back counts and swing at a sinker, inducing a ground out.  There shouldn’t be a surprise that veteran catcher Miguel Olivo would then lead the Mariners batters in average against Kuroda with a .417.

  • Current Line: 10-7 / 3.28 ERA / 35 BB / 107 SO / 1.17 WHIP

Game 110:  RHP – Hisashi Iwakuma vs. RHP – Freddy Garcia

Iwakuma set a Mariner’s team record for strike outs by a rookie in his last game against Toronto.  Although those stats are skewed by a veteran pitcher coming from Japan.  One key area of success for Hisashi Iwakuma is warm up time.  As a starter he can begin his warm up and mental prep days prior compared to a sudden call from the bullpen.

While it would still be nice to see his base on ball percentage drop (Right now it is 4.25/9 innings), if he gives more performances like he did in his last outing he could be auditioning for a spot on the team again next season.

  • Current Line: 2-2 / 4.10 ERA / 28 BB / 65 SO / 1.38 WHIP

Freddy Garcia is a legendary pitcher in Seattle, and he is still very good.  However the fact that he has a 5.10 indicates that there is a problem.  Most of his numbers look really stable, with the exception of one.

He is allowing more base runners to make it around the horn.  Seems the pressure may be getting to him, but hey, Yankee stadium is quite the stage.  Pressures rise is pressured situations.

Kevin Millwood, Seattle Mariners

M’s vs. Yankees Series Preview. Millwood has only allowed 6 home runs this season

Can’t the M’s notch another win against their former pitcher?

  • Current Line: 4-5 / 5.10  ERA / 17 BB /  52 SO / 1.39 WHIP

M’s vs. Yankees Series Predictions

Game 1:

I honestly don’t think the M’s stand a chance in this game… unless they can keep up their trend of scoring early.

Prediction:  Loss (Mariners 2 – Yankees 5)

Game 2:

This may come down to which ever team scores first wins, but I think that the Mariners have the better pitcher on the mound.

Prediction: Win (Mariners 1 – Yankees 0)

Game 3:

This game is a coin toss, but I think it may be the best chance the M’s have to outscore the Yankees.

Prediction: Win (Mariners 5 – Yankees 4)

Notes

  • Sabathia was fortunate to come away with a no-decision against Boston on Saturday after surrendering a season-high six runs in six innings.
  • The Mariners have not won eight in a row since June 23-July 1, 2007.

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