The Washington State Cougars picked up their first win of the season yesterday by taking advantage of a gift given to them by the scheduling gods.

Yet, even as the Hail Mary pass thrown by EWU quarterback Kyle Padron from WSU’s 32-yard line sailed incomplete, many Cougs (including myself) walked away from this win rather unimpressed.

Even though the game belonged to WSU from the start, they allowed EWU to close the gap in the second half. Washington State should feel fortunate to walk away with a 24-20 win.

Offensive Game Ball

I don’t like to hand out game balls to any one person unless there was such a standout performance that it can’t be ignored. In this case, two players really stood out – Carl Winston IIIand Teondray Caldwell.

Coming off an embarrasing performance last week vs BYU (in which Winston and Caldwell combined for 11 yards on 8 carries), the Cougs really needed something that resembled balance on offense.

I know what you’re thinking. The Air Raid offense is a predominantly pass happy offense, but in any  pass-oriented offense you need some consistency in the running game to keep defenses honest and open some things up in the passing game.

Yesterday, Winston and Caldwell were able to do just that, combining for 113 yards on 23 carries (4.6 ypc).

Say what you want about the level of competition because at the end of the day it’s all true, but if WSU hadn’t been able to run the ball with any consistency, Jeff Tuel doesn’t look as efficient as he did in the stat sheet (20-26 (77 com%) 171 yards, 2 TD’s).

Isiah Myers is the clear-cut honorable mention with 2 touchdown receptions. You can also make a case for freshman WR Gabe Marks who checked in with 3 catches for 77 yards.

The Washington State Cougars picked up their first win of the season yesterday. (AP Photo/Dean Hare)

Defensive Game Ball

The entire Cougar defense deserves recognition for their improved play from the week prior.

When you look down the stat sheet and see 469 total yards of offense and 21 first downs, it reads like EWU was able to move the ball effortlessly against WSU. However, that wasn’t the case.

The defense made huge strides this week in problem areas. The Cougar defense held RB Jordan Talley to 71 yards on 14 carries, which should be considered a win on defense considering recent memory will show us how ineffective the Cougs have been trying to stop the run in previous seasons.

They also held the Eagles to 20 points. This is a major victory for a defense that gave up 381 points (31.7 ppg) last season.

Switching to a 3-4 will have it’s adjustment periods, but having this type of performance will add confidence to a group that has UNLV next on their schedule.

Special Teams Game Ball

Without any question Andrew Furney deserves credit for his 60-yard field goal as time expired in the first half.

Yes, he did miss what would be considered a chip shot for him (40 yarder), but he was 3-3 on extra points and he did continue his steady influence on the kicking team.

Stats

Team Stats:

Total Yards – 355
Passing  – 25-37 – 247 yards – 6.7 YPA
Rushing – 30 carries – 108 yards – 3.6 YPC
1st Downs – 20
Penalties – 8 – 75 yards
TOP – 30:08

Player Stats:

Jeff Tuel: 20-26 (77 com%) – 171 yards – 6.6 YPA – 2 TD’s
Conner Halliday: 5-11 (45 com%) – 76 yards – 6.9 YPA – 1 INT

Carl Winston III: 12 – 67 yards – 5.6 YPC – 1 TD
Teondray Caldwell: 11 – 46 yards – 4.2 YPC

Gabe Marks: 3 – 77 yards – 25.7 YPC
Isiah Myers:  6 - 58 yards – 9.7 YPC – 2 TD’s
Marquess Wilson: 4 – 47 yards – 11.8 YPC

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With the 3rd pick in 2012 MLB draft, the Seattle Mariners select….Mike Zunino, Catcher, University of Florida.

Mike Zunino: H/W: 6’2, 200 LBS, B/T: R/R

The Seattle Mariners hit the nail right on the head with the selection of Mike Zunino, and not because of ramifications it will have on the franchise moving forward.

Although, when you think about how this team is being constructed (heavy emphasis on pitching and defense),  it seemed like a no-brainer the Mariners would select a steady back stop.

Why he fits in with what the M’s are planning on doing

This was great selection because of the tools Zunino brings to the table.  He’s a polished athlete as is and that’s rare, especially for a catcher.

Deviating from the traditional catcher style, Zunino is built more like a brick. He’s tall with a chiseled frame. He has a powerful core and strong hands. Blessed with above-average strength and body control, he’s a great receiver, and he’s made just three errors in all of 2012.

Zunino is a son a former minor league catcher, he knows how to frame pitches and his sharp reaction times make him a goalie-type blocker.

Defensively speaking, the Mariners have finally found Dan Wilson’s replacement.

With an above average bat and defense to boot, Zunino will be the future of the Mariners. (photo mlbdraftinsider.com)

The next Carlton Fisk?

It’s not his defensive acumen that makes him such a valuable commodity. The kid can hit as well.

He mixes solid contact and power like no catcher we have seen since the days of Carlton Fisk (that may be a little before your time so I’ll use the name Matt Wieters).

Before enrolling at Florida, he led his high school ball team to two consecutive class 5A state championships and set his schools single season home run record twice.

Zunino was an All-American in each of the three season’s he’s spent with the Gators.

After a strong freshman season, he took his production to a different level in 2010. He hit a staggering .371 with 19 home runs and ranked atop the SEC with a .422 average and 8 home runs during conference play.

Zunino single handedly led the Gators to a conference championship and was named the 2011 SEC Player of the Year.

Zunino’s junior season? It’s exactly what you think. .316/.388/.667/.1.055, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 27 2B, 73 H, 50 R, 45 K’s/28 BB’s

What this pick means for the future

In terms of how Zunino plays into the Mariners rebuilding plans, it addresses their organizations wide lack of ready-made talent at the catching position. More importantly, it puts Jesus Montero in the spot light.

He will have at least two more seasons to prove he can handle the position from the standpoint of calling the game (he isn’t currently), to throwing out runners at above replacement clip (he isn’t).

Let’s remember what being the top pick means for players that are not pitchers (pitchers generally take longer to reach the majors).

They are fast tracked for a reason. Their skill sets are higher then that of your average prospect.

Which means their MLB clock starts a lot sooner then that of an average pitcher.

When I see Zunino, I see a catcher that will be in Seattle within two seasons because defensively speaking, he is light years ahead of what Montero will ever be able to provide and that is something the Mariners desperately need after this season (Miguel Olivo’s contract expires after this season).

I’m not saying Montero is a terrible catcher, but he wasn’t traded for his defense. That is what Zunino will provide on top of the offense every Mariners fan desired.

Again Jack, great pick.

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For those that were mildly paying attention, the Seattle Mariners scored 49 runs (jeepers!). For those that have intently watched this team over the course of the season, you can understand when I say the Mariners have been on the verge of busting out offensively for a few weeks now.

Of course, many didn’t think it would be a 49 run explosion but considering the opposition (American League‘s 3rd and 6th best pitching staffs), it was nice to see the Mariners come out of their shell against playoff caliber pitching staffs.

The pitching on the other hand, was a complete afterthought in contrast to the offensive onslaught.

It overshadowed a terrible stretch in which the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox scored 23 runs in 31 innings pitched and if it wasn’t for the offensive production, that would’ve ended up being a predominant black eye on the face of the Seattle Mariners.

Let’s start from the beginning this week, shall we?

This week’s regression wasn’t just in terms of runs given up or the quality of opponents the Mariners were facing (let’s be honest, the Mariners have faced plus .500 teams for the majority of this season).

This regression was an issue of not establishing first pitch strikes (less the 18% first strike conversion), working in deeper counts (more than 60% of the time). The result was more pitches being thrown (average pitch count was 88) in fewer innings (average start was 5 innings pitched).

It wasn’t a complete black eye. There were a few bright spots this week. Jason Vargas continued his usual steady performance. Vargas won his lone start of the week giving up 3 R, 5 H, 2 K’s/3 BB’s in 6.2 IP in the second game of the three game set against Texas.

As a matter of fact, Vargas was the only starting pitcher who did not take a step back this week.

Last turn through the rotation:

Jason Vargas: 3 R, 7 H, 6 K’s/0 BB’s in 7 IP
Blake Beavan: 3 R, 5 H, 1 K/2 BB’s in 7 IP
Felix Hernandez: 5 R, 10 H, 7 K’s/1 BB in 6IP
Hector Noesi: 3 R, 5 H, 0 K’s/2 BB’s in 8 IP
Kevin Millwood: 1 R, 4 H, 5 K’s/2 BB’s in 5 IP

This week:

Jason Vargas: 3 R, 5 H, 2 K’s/3 BB’s in 6.2 IP
Blake Beavan: 5 R, 8 H, 2 K’s/0 BB in 6
Felix Hernandez: 4 R, 5 H, 6 K’s/4 BB’s in 5 IP
Hector Noesi: 6 R, 7 H, 5 K’s, 0 BB in 4.1 IP
Kevin Millwood: 4 R, 7 H, 4 K’s/5 BB’s in 4 IP

The Mariners sent RHP Steve Delabar down to AAA Tacoma

The other bright spot was the major league debut of 23 year-old RHP Stephen Pryor, who was called up on Friday to make an impact on a bullpen that has been giving up far to many long balls (Pryor gave up one in his debut) and far too many free passes.

The hope is to gradually bring Pryor along for a month or two before giving him a defined role at the back end of the bullpen. If all goes as planned, Pryor could very well supplant Brandon League as this team’s closer.

News, Notes, and Injuries

Along with calling up Pryor on Friday, the Mariners sent RHP Steve Delabar down to AAA Tacoma (thank god) and transferred LHP George Sherrill from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL.

Shortly after his last start, it was reported that Felix Hernandez suffered a back injury. According to Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle, Hernandez was in noticeable pain. Eric Wedge and medical staff will evaluate this over a period of a few days and make a decision regarding his next start.

Justin Smoak continued his rise from the early season ashes by capturing the A.L. Player of the Week award with a .320, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 6 BB’s/4 K’s, 21 TB performance this week.

Which one of these sets of numbers just doesn’t fit?

.282/.333/.525/.858, 49 R, 66 H, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 19 BB’s/44 K’s, 123 TB, 21-58 (36.2%) RISP

or

31 ER, 58 H, 47 K’s/22 BB’s, 5.16 ERA, 1.481 WHIP in 54 IP

(hint: it’s the second one)

See you guys next week for the week in numbers.

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The M’s won 10-3 Tuesday. Nice win!

My how this team ebbs and flows. Whether it’s day to day or week to week, this team never has consistent moments of effectiveness in any facet of the game.

One day they can look great, while the next day they cannot get out their own way.

It’s understandable really, considering 18 members of the 25-man Seattle Mariners roster are under the age 30 (9 of those regulars are playing in their first full season).

It’s expected to see this team streak in packs. Onto last week’s recap.

Last week was a perfect example of how streaky this team is

From the starting rotation opening up the week giving up 4 earned runs in 22 innings pitched (1.63 ERA), to the bullpen giving up 3 earned runs in 5 innings, the Mariners pitched well in the series victory against the Texas Rangers.

The rest of the week?

Not so much.

The rotation finished the week giving up 14 earned runs in 28 innings pitched (4.50), while the bullpen gave up 3 earned runs in 8 innings pitched in a four-game sweep to the Los Angeles Angels.

While there may have never been a  rhythm from start to start, there were individual strides taken.

The Rotation

Hector Noesi has seemed to turn the corner from his early season struggles. He was effective in 18 innings pitched (8 innings per start) while giving up 6 ER, 8 H, 7 K’s/4 BB’s, 3.00 ERA, 0.666 WHIP.

A  fundamental lack of offense was the only reason for his two losses. Otherwise, Noesi was the most consistent starter of the week.

Even though many people credit Alex Liddi‘s grand slam as the focal point in the Mariners game #3 victory against Texas,  Kevin Millwood‘s continued  streak of quality starts (1 ER in 16 innings pitched with a complete game shutout coming in to this start) was the reason why the Mariners were able to win that series.

Millwood blanked the league’s leading offense for 6 innings, giving up only 3 hits and striking out two while notching his third straight victory.

His control was off the charts, and while his velocity may not be league average, he was able to set up off-speed out-pitches with pinpoint control of his fastball.

Outside of Noesi and Millwood, the Mariners rotation was less than stellar the rest of the week (to be fair, Jason Vargas and Blake Beavan were steady; 6 ER, 12 H, 7 K’s/2 BB’s, in 14 IP combined was good enough to win).

Seattle Mariners Pitching Breakdown - The Weekly Recap (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Felix Hernandez, who was lights out in the week’s opener (1 ER, 6 H, 7 K’s/2 BB’s, 1.12 ERA, 1.000 WHIP), was rattled in his second start of the week against the ever-patient Los Angeles Angels.

The Angels came into the game wanting to drive up Hernandez’s pitch count and their plan paid off. Hernandez was tagged for 5 ER, 10 H, 7 K’s/1 BB, 7.50 ERA, 1.833 WHIP, and the big blow; a  pinch-hit grand slam from Alberto Callespo that sunk Hernandez on turn back the clock day.

The Bullpen

The bullpen made strides this week. I understand how that reads considering Brandon League had another meltdown (more on him later). Despite a 5.78 ERA for the week, Mariner relievers were able to improve in two major categories.

Coming into this week the bullpen had averaged 4 walks per series (8th in the A.L. with 51 free passes) and 1 home run per series (1st in the A.L. with 21 bullpen long balls).

This week? The bullpen had 4 walks all week and only one long ball.

News, Notes, and Injuries

After blowing the second game in the Angels series, manager Eric Wedge and pitching coach Carl Willis removed Brandon League from the closer’s role. Wedge attributed League’s demotion to not being able to get a feel for his split or slider, which led to many outings being shaky at best.

The plan for the closer’s role is to use multiple pitchers depending on the match ups.

The Mariners offense has been the most consistent aspect of the 2012 season.

That’s not a good thing.

Here is a look at what the offense did this last week.

.166/.269/.276/.545, 21 R, 35 H, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 31 BB’s/65 K’s, 58 TB, in 210 AB’s. They were also 9-58 with RISP (15.5%)

One of the bright spots of the week has been the continued progress of Justin Smoak. Here was his line for the week (6-23 (.260) 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 R, 1 BB/2 K’s, 13 TB, ans 1 SB).

See you guys next time for the week in numbers.

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For whatever reason there seems to be a hot-button, by-line topic surrounding the Seattle Seahawks entering year three of the Pete Carroll era. It’s generally asked in the form of a question, “If Pete Carroll goes 7-9 again this season, will he be on the hot seat?”

Quite frankly, it’s absurd if you ask me. It’s not because I like Pete Carroll or whether or not I support his regime (because I don’t), but it’s utterly naive for anyone to think a head coach would be on the hot seat only two years removed from blowing up an entire roster.

It’s not a secret for anyone who watches sports that rebuilding is a necessary evil that takes time.

It’s not something that can happen overnight, over a period of months, or even over a period of a couple of years. Rebuilding an organization takes years to succeed, and in some cases, the time that is put in doesn’t work at all (see the Buffalo Bills).

It doesn’t matter what your sport is (the NBA being the exception), the right coach needs a minimum of five years worth of free agency and draft picks before fans can actually see the fruits of the rebuilding process unfold before their eyes.

Holmgren Era

Let me remind you of the Mike Holmgren era so we can accurately reflect on how long a successful rebuild takes. If we can remember, the 1999 AFC West division winning team (Holmgren’s first season) was a collection of players from the Randy Mueller/Dennis Erickson regime from 1995-98.

It took Holmgren six years to win his first division title

The very next season Holmgren embarked on a roster purge that saw 8 new starters from the previous season and that number shot up to 20 in 2001. From 2000 until 2002 (3 full seasons), Mike Holmgren painstakingly underwent a massive rebuild of his roster while posting a 22-26 record before reaching the playoffs in 2003.

It took Holmgren six years to win his first division title with his own roster and in the seventh season of his tenure, the Seahawks reached the pinnacle of their sport.

Seven years to reach the top of the mountain and people are asking if Pete Carroll is on the hot seat. We should consider this to be year 1 of his regime. Unlike Holmgren before him, Carroll took on the process of purging his roster as his first order of business.

Over 140 personnel transactions took place in 2010, including 18 new starters that saw the field for the NFC West division winning 7-9 Seahawks.  In year 2, Carroll and John Schneider were still adding pieces to the puzzle in what was considered the first season in which the young nucleus was getting their first taste of the NFL.

2012

The upcoming 2012 season (year 2, but really year 3) is a vital step in the rebuilding process. More high motor, high skill-set play makers have been added to the mix and Carroll’s roster is taking the mold of what he envisioned when he first stepped foot on the banks of Lake Washington over two years ago.

A relentless defense with a power running game tailored to Century Link Field and the 12th man. The idea is to punish opponents physically on every down while controlling the time of possession on offense.

Again though, this team is young and vastly inexperienced. They will go through the necessary growing pains attributed to having a youthful roster.

The one key point I must make in regards to Pete Carroll would be to stop with the mantras. It’s nice to see a head coach fired up, but there is a problem with the “always compete” company line.

Win-Forever

Carroll inadvertently ratchets up the expectations of the fan base. At face value that may not seem like a huge problem because Carroll may believe his own hype , but having an inexperienced team will almost certainly let you down nine times out of ten.

Up to this point Pete Carroll is a below .500 NFL head coach

Having another 7-9 season wouldn’t be a surprise to the inner circle who run the Seahawks, but it would crush a fan base that was expecting to see a playoff appearance. In doing so, it would squarely place the blame on the shoulders of the guy who’s mantras aren’t holding the water they promised over two years ago.

Realistically though, Pete Carroll’s job is probably the safest in the National Football League. Paul Allen’s affinity for Pete Carroll has almost certainly guaranteed him five seasons, if the not the seven seasons Mike Holmgren had to get the Seahawks to the Super Bowl.

That’s not to say things couldn’t change if he’s pushing 7-9 and 8-8 seasons in our face by year five; quite the opposite actually.

Let’s remember now, Pete Carroll came into this job (33-31) much like Dennis Erickson left this job (31-33) . What does that mean? Up to this point Pete Carroll is a below .500 NFL head coach with cool sayings, hip shoes,  and flashy hair.

What he accomplished at USC is completely irrelevant. He wasn’t hired because he could win at the college level. Pete Carroll was hired to do what Mike Holmgren couldn’t do, which is to win a Super Bowl.

Right now we have patience with Pete Carroll because we can see where this team is headed.

I fully understand the time frame in which an NFL head coach needs to succeed and with Paul Allen’s resources, it’s not unthinkable to see Carroll succeeding as a Seahawk.

For the time being his seat is ice cold and I’m perfectly okay with that, but if the Seahawks are still pushing out an 8-8 product over the next two seasons, come and see me.

I’ll have the answer you’re looking for.

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The subject of Felix Hernandez and the lack of run support the Seattle Mariners are giving him is such an interesting subject of conversation because of the preconceived notions that are attached to them.

Preconceived notions? Absolutely!

Before you start asking, I already know.

Since the beginning of 2009, the Mariners offense has only given Hernandez 2 or less runs in 39 starts (22% of his starts since 2009), and while it does seem like an awfully high number of starts, you have to consider that Hernandez made 108 starts in that time frame.

Felix could use these two in their prime's right about now.

Moreover, Hernandez received 3 or more runs per start in the other 69 starts (64% of his starts) during the same time frame.  That’s 9 starts shy of being double the amount of starts in which Felix has received more run support than not.

An interesting side note about those 39 starts (36% of his starts); there are 15 games (14% of his starts) in which Felix Hernandez was hit hard or failed to get out of the 5th inning.

Hernandez gave up 63 runs in those 15 games (4.2 RPG) which leaves a total of 24 starts (out of 108 -22%) in which the offense failed to back up a Hernandez start in which he pitched lights-out.

This is why there is a preconceived notion

Because regardless of the total lack of offense the Mariners have had over the last two seasons (513 and 556 runs scored in 2010-11),  it’s just an excuse. Felix Hernandez has still been able to receive ample runs to win the majority of his games in the innings per start he has averaged.

• 2009 – 33 starts, 238.2 IP (7.2 IP per start), 66 ER (2 RPS) – offense scored – 148 runs (4.5 runs per start)
• 2010 – 34 starts, 249.2 IP (8 IP per start), 63 ER (1.8 RPS) – offense scored – 104 runs (3 runs per start)
• 2011 – 33 starts, 233.2 IP (7 IP per start), 90 ER (2.7 RPS) – offense scored – 120 runs (3.6 runs per start)
• 2012 – 8 starts, 59 IP (8 IP per start), 15 ER (1.8 RPS) – offense scored – 32 runs (4 runs per start)

Looking at these numbers, two things should jump out at you

#1. Felix Hernandez is a dominant pitcher (despite only receiving 3 runs per start in 2010, Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young Award with a 13-12 record).

Is Felix getting squeezed out of run support? (Photo by Koji Watanabe/Getty Images)

#2. The offense has given Hernandez 3.7 runs per start since 2009. Considering Hernandez is only giving up 2 runs per start over the same time period, his average game is a 4-2 win while pitching 8 innings per start.

Those numbers should be good enough to win more than 50% of  his starts. So why isn’t his win total an high as it should be?. Remember those 39 starts in which the offense gave Hernandez 2 runs or less?

For 15 of those starts Hernandez just didn’t have his stuff.

That accounts for 15 of his 33 losses or 45% percent of his losses. The remaining 24 games (or 22% of his starts) were littered with no-decisions or situations in which the bullpen couldn’t hold a lead or flat out blew a Hernandez win.

That’s the reality of the situation

Only in 22% of the starts that Hernandez has made since 2009 was there an actual lack of run support.

That’s a big contradiction to what we have perceived or what we’ve been told.

In actuality, Hernandez has been given enough runs  to win in 64% of the games in which he has pitched in.

There is no doubt the offense has been terrible. We know that to be true but again, despite the horrible numbers, the Mariners lineup has given Felix 3.7 runs per start.

Of course it’s not the 9.2 runs per game Derek Holland received or the 8.8 runs runs per game Rick Porcello had in 2011, but the 4 runs per game might as well be 9 runs of  support considering everything that has been stacked against Hernandez since 2009.

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23 R, 52 H, 46 K’s/15 BB’s, 3.93 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, and 5 HR’s (9 RBI’s)

Yikes!!

Not exactly the kind of week Eric Wedge was envisioning from his pitching staff.

When you come off one of the most complete pitching performances of the year as a staff last week, the last thing the Seattle Mariners could afford to do is regress against two of the more potent American League offenses in the Detroit Tigers (5th) and the New York Yankees (3rd).

The week started off on the wrong foot in the third inning of game one when Blake Beavan took a lined shot off the bat of Miguel Cabrera. After multiple replays and a lot of wincing and grimacing, the Mariners ended up dodging a huge bullet.

Beavan suffered no structural damage from the line drive and outside of soreness and discomfort, Beavan will have his start pushed back to the second game against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday.

Hidden Gem?

The good news is Hisashi Iwakuma (1 R, 3 H, 5 K’s/0 BB’s in 3 IP) delivered a fine performance in long relief.

With Octavio Dotel‘s meltdown in the 9th inning, the Mariners looked poised to start off the week in good fashion. My how things can change overnight.

Kevin Millwood turned in his usual Kevin Millwood performance (5 R, 8 H, 3 K’s/5 BB’s in 5 IP) and it took a Herculean performance from Jason Vargas (1 R, 5 H, 6 K’s/0 BB’s in 8 IP) in the series finale to barely take two out of three from the Tigers.

Tough time in NYC

As the week progressed, the Mariners rotation struggled against a very solid Yankees lineup in a ball park that puts a premium on location. Felix Hernandez and Hector Noesi struggled to do just that.

Noesi’s start (5 R, 6 H, 4 K’s/0 BB’s in 5 IP) didn’t exactly come as a huge surprise because he had been struggling with fastball location coming in.

Hernandez, on the other hand, had been absolutely dominate at Yankee Stadium over his last three starts (3-0, 1 R, 11 H, 27 K’s/10 BB’s, 0.37 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, .157 BAA in 24 IP).

The Yankees had Hernandez rattled from the beginning with their wait and see approach (they took a lot of pitches). As a result, Felix’s pitch count went up and he was eventually knocked out after 6.2 IP (4 R, 11 H, 7 K’s/2 BB’s).

The series ended the same way as the Detroit series with Kevin Millwood throwing 7 strong innings (1 R, 3 H, 6 K’s/4 BB’s) on three days rest. Otherwise, this week was the epitome of up and down.

Two great starts (Vargas and Millwood), two bad starts (Millwood and Noesi), one mediocre start (Hernandez) and we arrive at the 3-3 record the Mariners posted.

Which Kevin Millwood will we see this week?

To Wrap It All Up…or not

On top of the poor performance from the rotation, the bullpen had an equally down week. Outside of Iwakuma and Brandon League‘s performances, the bullpen surrendered 6 runs on 15 hits with Shawn Kelley and Steve Delabar surrendering the two home runs.

One caveat though, after surrendering 16 free passes over four consecutive series’, the Mariners relievers issued only 4 walks on the week (two in each series).

Weekly Numbers

Starters: W/L 2-3-1, 17 R, 37 H, 27 K’s/11 BB’s, 4.17 ERA, 1.308 WHIP

Bullpen: 6 R, 15 H, 19 K’s/4 BB’s, 3.52 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 3 Hlds, 1 Sv

News, Notes, and Injuries

The Mariners offense was equally as bad this week, scoring only 19 runs (3.1 RPG) the entire week, while striking out 38 times. Despite the low on-base numbers, the Mariners continued to show their power (5 HR, 7 RBI, 9 2B, 66 TB).

Here are the numbers from the week. .221/.287/.347/.634, 19 R, 42 H, 5 HR’s, 17 RBI, 38 K’s/19 BB’s, 66 TB, and 10-41 with RISP (24.4%).

After posting low offensive numbers yet again and calling out Brendan Ryan the night before, Eric Wedge told Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle that Ichiro Suzuki was quote “not a prototypical three hole hitter.”

Wedge also went on to say that Ichiro “is not a guy who is going to be doing a lot of damage. He is going to get his hits. Hopefully he gets them at the right time.”

Ichiro will remain hitting #3 for the time being, but it’s obvious the Ichiro experiment is coming to an end.

See you next week for the week in numbers.

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Every aspect of competition brings out the very best in teams for the good and the bad.

Heading into 2012, Washington State Cougars Head Coach Mike Leach must determine which signal caller is right for his offense.

As much as this competition is about arm strength, foot work, and the rest of the intangibles that goes along with playing the position, at the end of the day Mike Leach is looking to see which QB has the “IT” factor, The guy that possess the ability to control the locker room and the huddle.

By looking at the position in abstract, it’s hard to pick one based on the 2011 season because the QB position was a complete train wreck for the Cougars.

Tuel

Tuel was sidelined for 2011 opener

Jeff Tuel started the 2011 opener on the sideline with a stomach virus, only to enter the game and break his broken collar bone during his first series.

This forced the Cougars to turn to Marshall Lobbestael for the majority of the season. When Tuel did return to action it wasn’t long before he was out again with soreness of the collar bone he broke just over a month earlier (some have speculated Tuel broke the bone again against Oregon State).

Halliday

In the wake of the Jeff Tuel injury, Connor Halliday broke into the spotlight with a record setting 494 yard, 4 TD performance against Arizona State.

The fallout from that game not only made Halliday the flavor of the week, but it also had quite a few Cougar fans talking about a legitimate QB competition.

Those talks abruptly ended the very next week when Connor Halliday suffered a lacerated liver on a second quarter hit against Utah. Halliday’s injury has carried over into spring practices.

Halliday took an incidental shot in the team’s first practice forcing Halliday to miss the rest of spring drills, including the Crimson and Gray game.

Where does that leave the position?

It actually leaves the position in good hands.

Halliday broke into the spotlight with a 494 yard 4 TD game

Jeff Tuel is back and completely recovered. What figured to be a competition has looked like a one-sided affair. With Connor Halliday out until the fall camp while recovering from the shot to his healing liver, Tuel has been left alone to take all the snaps with the first team.

That segwayed into his performance in the spring game (19-21, 285 yards, 2 TD’s) which cemented his status as the team’s #1 QB heading into the fall camp.

Leach did speak with caution (not getting too high on Tuel’s performance) by saying that once Halliday is healthy in the fall, he and Tuel are expected to square off for the starting job.

Even though Tuel appears to be the front-runner to win the starting job, nothing has been set in stone.

The real competition hasn’t started

It won’t begin until Connor Halliday is 100% healthy and on the practice field giving Jeff Tuel his best shot.

At that point Coach Leach can begin the process of evaluating these two. Both QB’s possess the leadership intangibles that make QB’s great.

They both command the huddle exceptionally well, and both know the team loves battling with them on Saturday’s.

This competition will come down to skill set and I fully expect Leach to give it to the guy who rightfully earns it.

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#17 – Seattle Mariners
Position: First Base
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 230 lbs
Birthdate: December 5, 1986
Birthplace: Goose Creek, South Carolina
College: South Carolina

Interesting question isn’t it? For most of the Seattle Mariners fans who have been waiting for Justin Smoak to live up to the enormous expectations of being the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, the bust tag has been a common theme.

It’s not that simple though. Many times a player has been written off by a team before he should’ve been, only to resurface a few years later on another team living up to the expectations of years past.

Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik understands this better than anyone and when it comes to the touchy subject of Justin Smoak, this subject isn’t lost on him.

Expectations are a double-edged sword for high round picks. On one hand, a prospect can live in the moment and be able to thrive under the constant spotlight.

He can produce for his MLB club and still develop his tools without missing a beat.

For the rest of the prospects, the spotlight can be so glaring it actually becomes a detriment. In this case, a player’s deficiencies are placed on the forefront for everyone to pick apart and because of that, his development time slows down.

He ends up trying so hard to produce he becomes his own worst enemy.

Enter the 2012 version of Justin Smoak

What we have seen develop right before our very eyes is somewhat of a head scratcher because Justin Smoak was a player that excelled at every level of professional baseball.

He never showed signs of regression or a even showed signs of a potential prolonged hitting slump.

On the contrary, Smoak showed his potential worth during his short time in Texas‘ minor league organization.

• (*)2008 – A – Clinton – in 50 games, .304/.355/.518/.873, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3 2B, 9 R, 5 BB’s/10 K’s in 56 AB’s. (* Shortened season. Smoak signed with the Rangers on Aug 15th, 2008)
• 2009 – AA – Frisco – in 50 games, .328/.449/.481/.930, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 10 2B, 30 R, 39 BB’s/35 K’s in 153 AB’s
• 2009 – AAA- OKC – in 54 games, .244/.363/.360/.723, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 11 2B, 25 R, 35 BB’s/45 K’s in 197 AB’s
• 2010 – AAA – OKC – in 15 games, .300/.470/.540/.1.010, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 2B, 10 R, 16 BB’s/8 K’s in 50 AB’s

The mystery behind this demise is immense because generally speaking, a hitter never shows the prototypical signs of regression. It doesn’t equate to why Smoak has struggled during his short time in Seattle (.221/.307/.371/.677, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 39 2B, 87 R, 109 BB’s/223 K’s in 882 MLB AB’s).

One theory surfaced a few weeks ago by uber sabrematician Dave Cameron of USSMariner.com who wrote that Justin Smoak‘s pitch recognition and elongated swing doesn’t allow him to catch up to inside fastballs or off-speed pitches down in the zone.

Which in turn results in a low contact rate (71.3%).

While Cameron’s points are valid on many levels, he failed to point out the simplest explanation for Smoak’s lack of production.

He’s mired in the mother of all hitting slumps!

I know, it sounds too easy of an explanation

I get that, but do you really need a bunch of spray charts and pitch graphs to tell you that Smoak is slumping at the plate? All you need to do is watch Smoak’s demeanor during an at-bat.

His mannerisms scream of a guy who is pressing. He’s over-adjusting in every at-bat, trying to catch up to the fastballs pitchers are pounding in on his hands.

He's mired in the mother of all hitting slumps!

Instead of taking what a pitcher is willing to give him (anything on the outer-half of the plate/going the other way), Smoak is trying too hard to swing himself out of his slump. Once a player reaches that point, he is absolutely no good to his team or his lineup.

This isn’t anything new in terms of struggling prospects. It happens every year to every MLB team.

When teams are faced with the tough decision of sending a prospect down it’s because he was overwhelmed or flat out wasn’t ready for MLB. Case in point, Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals.

After being selected 2nd overall in the 2005 MLB Draft, the Royals fast tracked Gordon in hopes of having his ready-made tools be the difference for their franchise.

It didn’t work out the way Gordon or the Royals hoped it would. Gordon struggled through two and a half seasons (1200 AB’s) before being sent back down to AAA Omaha. In hindsight that ended up being the right decision.

I think we can be quite honest with each other

Justin Smoak is not comfortable in a MLB batter’s box. For the first time in his life, he is not excelling at the one thing that brought him joy. He needs to recapture that. He needs to feel good about stepping into the batter’s box knowing he will succeed.

He needs to have the confidence in his swing that made him a #1 pick and a top prospect. Right now he is so far in his own head he cannot see the forest through the trees.

By going down to Tacoma, Smoak can calm down and just relax and refocus his energy back on baseball. He can work out whatever swing issues he has with the Rainiers coaching staff, and feel good about dominating a level of pitching he is clearly better than.

At this point, it’s the only thing that could potentially get Smoak’s season back on track.

I think we all want Smoak be the player we know he can be, but we can also understand what it means to be in a slump. I think we need to spend more time respecting his slump and allowing him to work through it instead of micromanaging his slump by picking him apart.

It’s way too early to label him a bust but if something doesn’t give, the Mariners will be adding 1B to their off-season shopping list.

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This was exactly the type of week the Seattle Mariners have been waiting for since the season began more than four weeks ago. I know what you’re thinking.

Wait a second. This week was a success?

Are you talking about the same Mariners that were 2-5 this week against the Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins while hitting a meager .234/.293/.382/.794, 24 R, 55 H, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 21 BB’s/63 K’s, 90 TB, and was 13-44 with RISP (29.5%)?

I am indeed.

It’s a good thing this is a pitching recap and not a complete team recap. Although, I must say outside of batting average and strikeouts (63!! jeepers that’s a big number), I would actually call this week an offensive success.

They did score 3.5 runs per game. It was unfortunate they ran into the buzz saw of a pitching staff in Tampa Bay and their four aces (and that was a series without facing David Price).

This was a week in which the Mariners received a complete pitching performance from the starting rotation and bullpen.

Even with Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood combining for 2 losses (9 R, 14 H, 5 K’s/4 BB’s, 6.94 ERA, 1.542 WHIP).

The rotation tossed 45.2 IP with Felix Hernandez and Hector Noesi starting twice.

Hernandez, who is on a Cy Young pace, was 1-0-1, 1 R, 6 H,  18 K’s/6 BB’s, 0.56 ERA, 0.750 WHIP in 16 IP.  Much was made after his start in Tampa Bay over the lack of run support Hernandez seems to receive.

Never mind the Mariners were facing Jeremy Hellickson, the reigning A.L. Rookie of the Year and one of Tampa’s four aces.

Here is the truth amid the controversy

The Mariners offense has given Hernandez 4.2 runs per start this season while Hernandez has averaged 7.5 innings per start. The reason for Felix’s 3-1-3 record?

Two of his no-decisions were because of  blown leads by the Mariners bullpen. Hernandez’s record should be sitting at 5-1-1.

Felix Hernandez wasn’t the only starter who enjoyed a great week. Hector Noesi made two starts and both were met with positive reactions from manager Eric Wedge and pitching coach Carl Willis.

Both were looking for Noesi to be aggressive with his fastball earlier in the count to help his change-up be more effective as an out pitch.

It seemed to have worked. Noesi threw 12.2 IP, giving up 4 R, 7 H, 6 K’s/6 BB’s, 2.84 ERA, 1.026 WHIP while going 1-1.

The hard luck starter of the week has to be Jason Vargas. For a second straight start Vargas was the recipient of another bullpen gaff.

For a second straight start Vargas was the recipient of another bullpen gaff. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

This time it was Tom Wilhelmsen who badly threw wide to second baseman Dustin Ackley with the bases loaded after immediately walking two straight batters.

The result led to two unearned Minnesota Twins runs which eventually led to Charlie Furbush giving up the go-ahead runs five minutes later.

Even with Wilhelmsen’s gaff on Friday, the Mariners bullpen turned in a great performance this week. In 13.1 IP, the bullpen gave up 3 R, 8 H, 12 K’s/8 BB’s, 2.02 ERA, 1.200 WHIP.

While the bullpen had been struggling with home runs (13) and walks (22), it was much the same in that department.

Even though they did allow 8 BB’s, they only gave up 3 ER, which is huge considering the bullpen gave up 8 BB’s last week while giving up 11 ER.

Starting rotation this week: 2-3-2, 15 R, 31 H, 34 K’s/18 BB’s, 2.95 ERA, 1.072 WHIP in 45.2 IP

Bullpen this week: 3 R, 8 H, 12 K’s/8 BB’s, 2.02 ERA, 1.200 WHIP in 13.1 IP

Combined: 18 R, 39 H, 46 K’s/26 BB’s, 2.74 ERA, 1.101 WHIP in 59 IP

News, Notes, and Injuries

Even though Brendan Ryan had been hitting a .149 entering Saturday’s game against Minnesota, Eric Wedge inserted Ryan in the 2nd spot in the lineup in hopes of getting Ryan better looks in fastball counts.

Even though Ryan is 1-11 in the four games he’s played while batting second this season, he’s driven in 3 runs while scoring once.

The Mariners are 4-0 in those games while scoring 7.5 runs per game with Dustin Ackley and Ryan hitting 1-2 in the order.

The Mariners have recalled RP Shawn Kelley from AAA Tacoma. In 14.2 IP in Tacoma, Kelley gave up 2 R, 7 H, 19 K’s/4 BB’s, 1.23 ERA, 0.750 WHIP.

To make room on the 25-man roster, the Mariners optioned Erasmo Ramirez to AAA Tacoma.

See you guys next week for the pitching recap in numbers.

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